6/13/15 Actual Conditions PM

Temperatures maxed out at around 86F today. Not quite the overshoot I was expecting but still higher than the NWS offices were calling for. Dryer air took over in two parts. After the first drop in dewpoint, there were still some clouds lingering, not allowing for consistent solar heating. However, heating was stronger than the NWS expected, allowing for temperatures to get up to 86-87 (unofficial as of now).

The front that came through  our region is stalling just south of our area and tomorrow its presence will trigger convection in the atmosphere. Tonight, however, dry air wins over and we enjoy cooler temperatures with calmer northerly winds. In the middle of the night winds shift south/southeast then back north briefly, then we enjoy a consistent southerly flow for a while.

For Sunday, cloud cover starts building for 3 pm which leads to our next rain event. The GFS doesn’t like to believe in any precipitation Sunday night into Monday, while the NAM keeps lighter rain in Jersey and heavier rain in Eastern Pennsylvania

Through early Monday the northern counties of New Jersey are expected to receive the bulk of precipitation while the rest of the state receives some rain but nothing considerable. Rain continues on and off for Monday until it clears out early Monday night. The difference between the GFS and the NAM is quite remarkable. Two totally different dynamics are occurring and it will be interesting to see which solution plays out better.

6/13/15 Actual Conditions

My 19% prediction was the most accurate. Low last night was 72F at 5:47 AM– without the cold front having made it through, which means I would have been more off if the front didn’t weaken and make it through. The clouds disappeared as the dew point dropped below 70 degrees, allowing for the temperature to drop.

I was in Verona Park this morning working a 5k when there was a noticeable wind shift, sudden cloud coverage, and drier air. The front made it through north-central Jersey around 8 AM and slowly is pushing through our area. Temperature gradient not so dramatic- only 7 degrees per 200 miles. The front is completely dry with winds now coming out of the north.

As of now the clouds are clearing out, with more clouds lingering in South Jersey than North Jersey, as predicted. As we go through the day this will flip and clouds will develop over North Jersey due to the increased solar irradiance now. Moving through today New Jersey should stay dry. In the sense of probability, this is only a 80% guaranteed chance. Vorticity maximum comes through our area during the mid afternoon which could spark up an isolated rainshower for parts of Central Jersey that aren’t cloudy as I type this. However, the dry air in place behind the cold front passage are making the development unlikely

One can’t ignore how stable the atmospheric soundings are.

Yeah, not much is going to develop. Today’s forecasted high: 88F

Tonight’s forecasted low: 66F