6/13/15 Actual Conditions PM

Temperatures maxed out at around 86F today. Not quite the overshoot I was expecting but still higher than the NWS offices were calling for. Dryer air took over in two parts. After the first drop in dewpoint, there were still some clouds lingering, not allowing for consistent solar heating. However, heating was stronger than the NWS expected, allowing for temperatures to get up to 86-87 (unofficial as of now).

The front that came through  our region is stalling just south of our area and tomorrow its presence will trigger convection in the atmosphere. Tonight, however, dry air wins over and we enjoy cooler temperatures with calmer northerly winds. In the middle of the night winds shift south/southeast then back north briefly, then we enjoy a consistent southerly flow for a while.

For Sunday, cloud cover starts building for 3 pm which leads to our next rain event. The GFS doesn’t like to believe in any precipitation Sunday night into Monday, while the NAM keeps lighter rain in Jersey and heavier rain in Eastern Pennsylvania

IMAGE NOT FOUNDThrough early Monday the northern counties of New Jersey are expected to receive the bulk of precipitation while the rest of the state receives some rain but nothing considerable. Rain continues on and off for Monday until it clears out early Monday night. The difference between the GFS and the NAM is quite remarkable. Two totally different dynamics are occurring and it will be interesting to see which solution plays out better.

6/13/15 Actual Conditions

My 19% prediction was the most accurate. Low last night was 72F at 5:47 AM– without the cold front having made it through, which means I would have been more off if the front didn’t weaken and make it through. The clouds disappeared as the dew point dropped below 70 degrees, allowing for the temperature to drop.

I was in Verona Park this morning working a 5k when there was a noticeable wind shift, sudden cloud coverage, and drier air. The front made it through north-central Jersey around 8 AM and slowly is pushing through our area. Temperature gradient not so dramatic- only 7 degrees per 200 miles. The front is completely dry with winds now coming out of the north.

As of now the clouds are clearing out, with more clouds lingering in South Jersey than North Jersey, as predicted. As we go through the day this will flip and clouds will develop over North Jersey due to the increased solar irradiance now. Moving through today New Jersey should stay dry. In the sense of probability, this is only a 80% guaranteed chance. Vorticity maximum comes through our area during the mid afternoon which could spark up an isolated rainshower for parts of Central Jersey that aren’t cloudy as I type this. However, the dry air in place behind the cold front passage are making the development unlikely

IMAGE NOT FOUNDOne can’t ignore how stable the atmospheric soundings are.

Yeah, not much is going to develop. Today’s forecasted high: 88F

Tonight’s forecasted low: 66F

6/13/15 Pregame

Data shows less humid air moving into Central Jersey for Saturday. Highs still in the upper-80s, could see a 90F reading in New Brunswick, which is famous for breaking high forecasts

.shortwave

Overnight we’ll have a vorticity maximum to our northeast, helping to develop the line of thunderstorms currently in eastern Pennsylvania. Whether or not they’re torn apart by the time they reach Central Jersey is hard to say. Current HRRR simulated max radar does not indicate heavy precipitation for most of Central Jersey. Greatest likelihood over Raritan.

40% thunderstorms Union County/Northern Middlesex County/Northern Somerset County

60% thunderstorms Central+South Middlesex County/South Somerset/Mercer Counties

30% thunderstorms northern Monmouth County

0% Central and South Monmouth County

NOTE: If line holds up as it approaches New Jersey, Somerset and Mercer could see more prolonged rain than areas east.

Overnight winds shift north as the cold front dips into the region around 4 am. Partly cloudy with clouds building to their peak around 8am to 9am, so heating tomorrow will be delayed.

The area may struggle to get rid of overcast skies. The southern half of New Jersey will have more cloudy skies than the northern half, so an inverted temperature gradient may develop depending on how thick the clouds are and where they line up.

Tomorrow’s forecasted high for New Brunswick: 89

Low for tonight: 75 – I’m saying that clouds are going to move in to prevent temperatures from getting too low, though the cold front is kept in mind. If it rains, expect the low to reach the dewpoint – 72. Percentages:

80% for 75

19% for 72

1% for 74

Low for tomorrow night: 67 because the clouds should disappear for tomorrow night with the lower dewpoints and overall less moist air.

6/12/15 Pre-game

As of 4:39 PM EDT, New Brunswick @ Rutgers Gardens cracked the 90F mark, rather late with some clouds rolling in right around the peak solar radiation. Here’s the dip in solar irradiance starting around 1 PM EDT

along with the visible development of fairweather cumulus clouds on the satellite which dotted our area.vis_nj_anim

In terms of convection and any chance for thunderstorm activity, warm air aloft is keeping the atmosphere capped. The line of thunderstorms that developed across ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania are on the edge of a very weak trough. That will come through the NYC metro area around 2 am, we’ll see if they hold together throughout the night. 60% chance of some rumbles of thunder through 3 am for Central New Jersey.

61215spc

There’s also a few cells of thunderstorms in southeast Pennsylvania, prompting the NWS to issue a Severe Thunderstorm Warning. This particular cell is raining itself out right now, but with temperatures still above 90 the probability of more development and convection is rather high. This could prompt rainshowers before 2 am, maybe 11 pm.

anim_njrc

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN DAUPHIN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
  CENTRAL SNYDER COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
  WEST CENTRAL SCHUYLKILL COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
  SOUTHERN NORTHUMBERLAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
  NORTHEASTERN JUNIATA COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 515 PM EDT

* AT 412 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
  CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
  AROUND 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PAXTONVILLE...AND MOVING
  EAST AT 20 MPH.