Verification for 1/29/20

1/28/20 Climatology: Average high: 40F, Average low: 22F
Wednesday 1/29/20 Verification: High of 43F and Low of 33F. (+3.5F predicted vs 7F actual)

A look at the next four days of temperatures at Rutgers Gardens:
Thursday 1/30/20: High of 37F and Low of 25F. (-/+0F)
Friday 1/31/20: High of 42F and Low of 29F. (+3.5F)
Saturday 2/1/20: High of 45F and Low of 34F. (+8F); Potential coastal storm.
Sunday 2/2/20: High of 45F and Low of 34F. (+8.5F)

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Verification for 1/28/20

1/28/20 Climatology: Average high: 40F, Average low: 22F
Tuesday 1/28/20 Verification: High of 46F and Low of 34F. (+4.5F predicted vs 9F actual)

A look at the next four days of temperatures at Rutgers Gardens:
Wednesday 1/29/20: High of 40F and Low of 29F. (+3.5F)
Thursday 1/30/20: High of 35F and Low of 25F. (-1F)
Friday 1/31/20: High of 42F and Low of 29F. (+3.5F)
Saturday 2/1/20: High of 45F and Low of 34F. (+8F); Potential coastal storm.

Coupe

Verification for 1/27/20

1/27/20 Climatology: Average high: 39F, Average low: 22F
Monday 1/27/20 Verification: High of 44F and Low of 31F. (+7F predicted vs 7F actual)

A look at the next four days of temperatures at Rutgers Gardens:
Tuesday 1/28/20: High of 41F and Low of 29F. (+4.5F)
Wednesday 1/29/20: High of 40F and Low of 29F. (+4F)
Thursday 1/30/20: High of 38F and Low of 28F. (+2F)
Friday 1/31/20: High of 42F and Low of 30F. (5F)

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Verification for 1/26/20/ & Forecasts

1/26/20 Climatology: Average high: 39F, Average low: 22F
Sunday 1/26/20 Verification: High of 47F and Low of 31F. (+7.5F predicted vs 8.5F actual)
The high temperature today was 4F warmer than I forecasted and the low temperature was 2F cooler than I forecasted. I appear to be underestimating diurnal temperature variations in dry environments, but then again, so are all of the models. However, I ultimately underpredicted how warm the day would turn out. Abundant sunshine and SW winds were mostly responsible for the warmer conditions.

Screenshot from 2020-01-26 22-02-57.png

A look at the next four days of temperatures at Rutgers Gardens:
Monday 1/27/20: High of 43F and Low of 32F. (+7F)
Tuesday 1/26/20: High of 42F and Low of 29F. (+4.5F)
Wednesday 1/26/20: High of 40F and Low of 29F. (+4F)
Thursday 1/27/20: High of 38F and Low of 28F. (+2FF)
Clear skies tonight will allow the temperature to drop to near freezing (31-33F) while clouds move in for the afternoon, limiting temperatures from rising as high as they have the past few days. Expect clouds in the lower levels (900 to 850 hPa) as well as mid-levels (700 hPa). Winds will be primarily from the West and high temperatures should reach 42-44F with dewpoints in the mid-20s.

Temperatures will cool off slightly following a disturbance to the stratospheric polar vortex on Friday 1/31/20 due to the building of a ridge into Alaska. This will displace cold air which has been building up over Alaska and send it across Canada and into the United States.

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Colder than average temperatures will occupy the central and eastern part of the United States, much of Canada, and eastern Russia, while Europe, Africa, and eastern Russia enjoy warmer than normal temperatures. A surge of warmer temperatures heads north into Greenland as cold air dips south for the first time this year.

Crucially the GEFS has several members showing a coastal storm between 2/1/20 and 2/3/20, right before the surge of the coldest air. This will be our next chance of wintry precipitation (or any precipitation, really) as the next few days are mostly dry. With the subtropical jet across the southeast, the storm track is to our south over the next few days. There will be areas of low pressure moving across Tennessee and the Carolinas periodically over the next few days, developing into a stronger storm over the southeastern Atlantic. However, there is no blocking in place that would allow these storms to travel northward up the east coast until the stratospheric polar vortex becomes disturbed after 1/31/20.

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Today’s Coastal Storm

Today’s storm is as anticipated: warm and wet.

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Flooding is already being reported in South Jersey where nearly 2″ of rain has fallen and temperatures are up 53F. That warm air will move up to Central Jersey within the next few hours and rainfall rates will increase substantially.

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1/25/20 Verification

1/25/20 Climatology
Average high: 39F, Average low: 22F
Today’s Verification
Friday 1/24/20: High of 52F and Low of 25F. (+9F predicted vs 8F actual)
Last night, the temperature dropped suddenly to the mid-20s due to a lack of cloud cover and dry air. It was still above average, but not as above average as predicted. Similarly, during the day, the temperature rose 5F above what I had forecasted, nearly evening out my mistakes at both ends of the temperature spectrum. The models are clearly unable to resolve such high variability in temperature swings with a dry winter airmass and sunny skies.
A look at the next four days of temperatures at Rutgers Gardens:
Saturday 1/25/20: High of 52F and Low of 34F. (+10.5F); 1″ of rain 12 UTC – 20 UTC.
Sunday 1/26/20: High of 43F and Low of 33F. (+7.5F)
Monday 1/27/20: High of 44F and Low of 34F. (+8.5F)
Tuesday 1/26/20: High of 43F and Low of 31F. (+6F)

 

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Verification 1/24/20 & Forecast 1/25/20

1/24/20 Climatology
Average high: 39F, Average low: 22F
Today’s Verification
Thursday 1/23/20: High of 47 and Low of 18F.(+3F predicted vs +2F actual )
Last night, temperatures dropped to 18F (-4F climo), below the 23F I predicted as a result of drier than expected air and less high clouds than anticipated. A similar trend continued into the day, allowing for the high temperature to reach 47F just before 20 UTC.

Screenshot from 2020-01-23 19-09-53.png

A look at the next four days of temperatures at Rutgers Gardens:
Friday 1/24/20: High of 47F and Low of 32F. (+9F)
Saturday 1/25/20: High of 47F and Low of 36F. (+10.5F); 1″ of rain 12 UTC – 20 UTC.
Sunday 1/26/20: High of 43F and Low of 33F. (+7.5F)
Monday 1/27/20: High of 44F and Low of 34F. (+8.5F)
Average of next four days: +8.8F

More detailed forecast? Continue reading

Forecast for 1/23/20

As a southerly component to the wind returned today, temperatures at Rutgers Gardens surpassed 40F again. Tonight will be the last night with temperatures threatening to drop below the average low temperature for the foreseeable future as the dewpoint rises into the 30s. Expect intermittent high cloud cover and a WSW wind to prevent the low temperature to drop as far as the RAP suggests (21F). The GFS is a high outlier at 29F and the NAM is around 24F-25F, which I tend to believe. Thus, expect a low around 23F tonight.

The sun will rise around 12:15 UTC and there will be intermittent clouds between 400 hPa and 250 hPa through the morning. The layer above 500 hPa will reach saturation by sunrise allowing for overcast conditions at night, overnight, and through Friday morning.

Pictured: NAM 00 UTC at F24 of simulated cloud cover throughout the entire column for 00 UTC on 1/24/20.

Screenshot from 2020-01-22 22-24-04.png

Expect temperatures to rise rapidly through warm air advection and plentifult solar radiation. By 15 UTC temperatures will rise above freezing and by 17 UTC temperatures will reach near 40F. Warm air advection will allow temperatures to crest near 43F at 19 UTC, with outlier model solutions hinting at the potential for 45F depending on cloud cover. My official forecast is for 43F as the high on 1/23/20.

1/23/20 Climatology
Average high: 39F, Average low: 22F

Today’s Verification
Wednesday 1/22/20: High of 41F and Low of 16F. (+0.0F predicted vs -2F actual )
A look at the next four days of temperatures at Rutgers Gardens:
Thursday 1/23/20: High of 44 and Low of 23F. (+3F)
Friday 1/24/20: High of 47F and Low of 32F. (+9.5F)
Saturday 1/25/20: High of 45F and Low of 36F. (+10.5F)
Sunday 1/26/20: High of 43F and Low of 34F. (+8.5F)
Average of next four days: +8F

Continue to read more about the coastal storm on Saturday. Continue reading