The Oak Fire suddenly exploded from 0 to 10,000 acres in 24 hours, severely polluting the Sierra Nevada with smoke and ash from the south. This came at the same time that I decided to hike the Ten Lakes Trail north of Tioga Pass Rd in Yosemite National Park. I had to wear an N95 mask and goggles to keep the toxic air and falling ash out of my airways and eyes.
Strava Activity: 8.5 miles, 18:14 min / mile, 1626′ elevation gain.
I’ve been struggling with some hip flexor tendonitis ever since hiking to Clouds Rest from Yosemite Valley (20 miles, 6253′ elevation gain) in early June, so I’ve been increasing the intensity and elevation gain of my hikes over the past month. This culminated in my second attempted summit of White Mountain Peak on July 16th, 2022. The first time was in late May with sub-freezing temperatures and bitter cold winds that made the entire experience miserable. This time, temperatures were comfortable, between 50 and 65F for the duration of the hike, with plenty of sunshine. However, in May, I camped overnight at the trailhead (11,700′ elevation) to become acclimated to the altitude. This time I stayed in Big Pine, CA at an elevation just under 4000′. I figured my high altitude hikes over the last few months may help me but the lack of immediate acclimation would absolutely challenge me.
I left Big Pine, CA at 5:30 am and made my way up CA-168 then White Mountain Road through the White Mountains. After a 16 mile drive along a dirt road, I parked at the packed trailhead at 7:10 am and was on the trail by 7:15 am.
There were dozens of people who had already started on the trail ahead of me, who I would pass on my way to the Summit.
Around 2 miles into the hike I arrived at the Barcroft research station which had dozens of sheep, presumably there to help with studying the altitude’s affect on livestock physiology. There is a somewhat intense incline right after the research station which leads to a gentle downhill to a vast, barren landscape leading to the summit. In the 2 miles after the research station, I passed at least two dozen hikers who were starting to feel the altitude with the first intense incline.
I had no issues for the entire hike up to the summit, in terms of feeling tired or feeling the altitude at all. The last 1.5 miles right to the summit were very intense with a steep incline, but strangely enough my heart rate was not responding to this increased effort. I suspect my sudden exposure to altitudes as high as 14,000′ played a role in this, but I could not find anyone else who had this happen to them. Below is a plot showing the change in altitude and my heart rate with time throughout my hike (also viewable on the Strava activity). My heart rate almost never rose above 100 bpm on the way up despite an intense effort at such a high altitude. On the way down, my heart rate started spiking above 100 bpm, then to 130-150 bpm, especially during the first uphill on the way back (which felt like torture). After that first uphill on the way down, my heart rate was consistently above 130 bpm despite going downhill for the majority of the hike. I started to feel a little lightheaded and tired, but I was able to maintain my pace. I increased my water consumption, ate a clif bar and started to feel a lot better during the last 1-2 miles.
The summit was noticeably calm in terms of winds for a 14er. Best of all, I had the summit all to myself, as I passed almost all of the hikers ahead of me. Views were amazing, although dust below 10,000′ created a minor haze that impacted visibility, especially towards Nevada.
As I started to descend the summit, I felt a little bit of soreness in my hip flexor, which lingered for the rest of the hike, but it never became a sharp pain. 24 hours after the hike, most of this soreness is gone and I’m hoping to be able to start running again this week.
Final stats
14.97 miles, 3320′ elevation gain. 2:24:00 to the summit, 4:44:40 total round trip. [ Strava ]
Coupe
White Mountain Peak (14252′) nestled within the White Mountain Wilderness is known for dynamic weather during the summer months, as thunderstorms can form within minutes in the afternoon in July or August. As I plan on hiking this mountain on Saturday July 16th, 2022, I am making a thunderstorm forecast to create the best possible hiking plan.
Large scale conditions
An area of surface high pressure and upper level ridging over the Four Corners region remains in place with broad troughing offshore of California. The primary uncertainty in the forecast is the potential for thunderstorms over the next week – which will be determined by how much moisture makes it to the state. Moisture transport will be occurring along the southwest part of the Four Corners high, streaming in through the desert Southwest and up to parts of Central California by Saturday morning.
Temperatures will be unseasonably warm across much of California (105-110F Central Valley, <110F Mojave Desert), but at 14000′, daily high temperatures are not expected to break 65F. The coarse resolution of the NAM 12km is unable to resolve some of the high elevation features of the White Mountains so we are forced to rely on a temperature profile and extrapolate to the appropriate pressure level (~600 mb). Unfortunately, this pressure level is around the LCL on the NAM sounding initialized at 00z on 07/14 for 07/16 at 21z. Surface CAPE is greater than 538 J/kg on this sounding and the elevations of the hike itself (11300′ to 14225′) is within an area of relatively high instability for this region. Dewpoints could be higher and winds are relatively weak, which would support weaker pulse-like thunderstorm activity. However, there is dry air around 400 mb which could support some hail development if a small thunderstorm does develop along the White Mountain Peak.
A GFS sounding shows even stronger lapse rates in the White Mountains region but slightly lower moisture levels in the mixed layer, leading to slightly lower CAPE.
Surface CAPE will be between 200-350 J/ kg in the White Mountains on 07/16/22 at 21Z according to the 00z NAM initialized 07/14/22. The White Mountains are on the northern leading edge of this gradient, which favors some convective activity along this front.
In conclusion, I expect at least one pulse thunderstorm to develop at White Mountain Peak on 07/16/22, but likely after 19z. Based on this forecast, I will start hiking by 7 AM when temperatures will be 40-45F with 15-20 mph winds.
Coupe
As the remnants of once hurricane Ida interacts with a trough over the eastern United States, its tropical moisture will allow extreme amounts of rainfall to fall across Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and New York over a short period of time. This will cause hazardous and potentially life threatening flash flooding across areas with soil that is already saturated. The WPC day 1 excessive rainfall outlook for 09/01/2021 valid at 16 UTC illustrates the risk, especially for northern New Jersey, which has been given a HIGH risk of flash flooding, which is rare for this region except during tropical cyclones and training thunderstorms.
An additional hazard across Maryland, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey is the risk of tornadoes. High vertical wind shear and plentiful tropical moisture will allow for strong thunderstorms with rotating updrafts, leading to tornadoes across the mid Atlantic region today. A tornado watch has been issued for much of the region through 09/02/2021 at 02 UTC.
Mesoscale discussions 1669 and 1671 illustrate the unusually high risk for tornadoes across the region.
MD1671 is shown below. The discussion emphasizes the risk in northeastward moving cells, which provides maximum storm relative helicity, especially in proximity to the stationary front.
More details in the video below.
Coupe
As a very strong area of high pressure slides eastward, an area of low pressure will move through the Great Lakes region. Our area will remain in the warm sector of the front associated with this low, creating marginal temperatures for snow accumulation across most of the area. Precipitation will begin between 16Z and 18Z. The hi-res and regular NAM suggest the rain/snow line will remain along I-95, with some 1-3″ of snow accumulation possible across areas of Northern New Jersey between 18Z and 22Z on Monday February 22nd. Central New Jersey will remain right on the border of the rain/snow line, and a minor shift will favor a rain-based storm. The GFS is extremely similar, showing the rain/snow line along the I-95 corridor as well. Therefore, there is high confidence in where the rain/snow line will set up, but the ratios are uncertain. A wet snow with low snow to liquid ratios is expected along the I-95 corridor, so expectations for high accumulations should be kept in check south of I-78. Between 0.35″ and 0.5″ of liquid equivalent is expected from this event, as both rain and snow.
Once this storm passes, it will usher in a period of temperatures that are closer to normal for this time of year (44F highs). Tuesday will reach 40F, Wednesday will reach 45F, and so on.
Coupe
Following one of the coldest winter stretches across the continental United States in decades, warmer weather will return across much of the country following the historic Arctic displacement event that crippled Texas’s electrical grid. A ridge will build in the south between days 1-5 and a southeast ridge will become prominent in the 5-11 day range, bringing warm weather to the east. However, a trough in the west will ensure cold and unsettled weather in the intermountain west. A cold west and warm east pattern will take hold between days 5 and 13, which is something the Climate Prediction Center is also forecasting:
Ridging over Canada will bring warm weather to the northern interior of the country in the day 12-16 range. The NAO is expected to remain positive through March 1st, with only a few GEFS ensemble members forecasting a negative NAO into March.
In the 3-4 week time period, the weakened Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal along with more positive trend in the Arctic Oscillation (AO) will allow for the influence of La Nina to dominate over the weather over the continental US for the next month. The only inconsistency with this analog compared to the dynamical models is the extent to which troughing spreads equatorward from Alaska down to the western coast of the US. This creates uncertainty in temperatures over the western United States that creates a fine line between average and below average temperatures. However, over the eastern United States, a southeast ridge will already favor warmer than average temperatures and greater troughing in the west will only increase the probability of warmer temperatures.
Consistent with this, the CPC week 3-4 temperature outlook (March 6 – 19, 2021) shows greater confidence for above average temperatures in the east compared to in the west:
After one possible light snow event on Monday (February 22nd), it appears that, unless we have another historic blocking episode that the dynamical models have not picked up on yet, our chances for another snowstorm are dwindling as we head into March.
Coupe
Although this storm was not particularly strong, the alignment of upper and mid-level features over New Jersey promoted intense mesoscale snowbands. This, in conjunction with the slow-moving nature of the storm, allowed it to dump over two feet of snow across the area. It is still snowing lightly across New Jersey, and another 1-2 of snow accumulation is still possible. After all the snow has fallen, this storm will be comparable to the January 2016 blizzard.
Here are some notable snow reports from New Jersey:
…Middlesex County… Metuchen 19.7 in 0627 AM 02/02 Public South Plainfield 19.0 in 0800 AM 02/02 Self-report New Brunswick 18.0 in 0426 PM 02/01 Trained Spotter …Somerset County… Bedminster Twp 19.7 in 1015 PM 02/01 Trained Spotter Bridgewater 19.4 in 1100 PM 02/01 Cocorahs …Hunterdon County… Byram 26.0 in 0627 AM 02/02 Public …Morris County… Mount Arlington 28.5 in 0959 PM 02/01 Trained Spotter Randolph 28.3 in 0600 AM 02/02 Trained Spotter Green Pond 27.1 in 0555 AM 02/02 Trained Spotter Lake Hopatcong 25.4 in 0700 AM 02/02 Trained Spotter Marcella 24.0 in 0856 AM 02/02 Trained Spotter Millington 20.0 in 1037 PM 02/01 Public …Sussex County… Montague 33.2 in 0709 AM 02/02 Public Sparta 30.3 in 1000 PM 02/01 Trained Spotter Stanhope 28.2 in 0930 AM 02/02 Public Andover 27.0 in 1000 PM 02/01 Trained Spotter Byram Twp 26.0 in 0626 AM 02/02 Public Hopatcong 26.0 in 1155 PM 02/01 Trained Spotter 1 SW Highland Lakes 25.2 in 0800 AM 02/02 CO-OP Observer Vernon 24.0 in 0640 AM 02/02 Public Newton 22.0 in 0430 AM 02/02 Public Stockholm 20.0 in 0800 AM 02/02 Trained Spotter …Bergen County… 1 ESE Park Ridge 23.0 in 0824 AM 02/02 Trained Spotter Closter 22.4 in 0815 PM 02/01 Public Franklin Lakes 20.6 in 1030 PM 02/01 Trained Spotter 1 S Washington Townshi 20.5 in 1245 AM 02/02 Trained Spotter 1 SSW Hillsdale 20.5 in 0600 AM 02/02 Public Westwood 20.0 in 0745 PM 02/01 Trained Spotter …Passaic County… Bloomingdale 26.2 in 0100 AM 02/02 Trained Spotter
Here is a preliminary plot using NOHRSC analysis data from Jan 31st at 12 UTC through Feb 2nd at 12 UTC. This plot will be updated as NOHRSC analysis is updated, as this is an underestimate that does not include some of the highest totals.
Coupe
Synoptic forcing and mid-level frontogenesis is promoting 1-2″ per hour snowfall rates across central and northern New Jersey this morning.
At all levels, there is support for lift, which will continue through the morning. Although intense snow rates will drop off for the afternoon, an area of low pressure will linger off the New Jersey coastline for the next 24 hours at least, providing additional light snow accumulation on top of the 10″ that parts of Central Jersey received overnight. Sleet may mix in with snow during the early afternoon, but snow should dominate again Monday night into Tuesday. This is highly dependent on the track of the meandering low pressure. In the 12 UTC high resolution NAM simulation from this morning, the low stays just offshore and there is steady snowfall through Tuesday afternoon. This results in the accumulation of >12″ of snow on top of the >9″ received across the area. The NWS forecast for this area was 18-24″, which is expected to verify on the high-end if the high resolution NAM is right. If the HRRR model is right, the forecast will still verify on the low end of the NWS range.
Continue readingA surface low will move across the eastern United States from the Southern Great Plains across the Ohio River Valley. As it passes over the Appalachians, the surface low will transfer north of Cape Hatteras and develop into a broad surface low with a large precipitation shield that will envelop much of the eastern seaboard with wintry precipitation. An upper level trough and a jet streak south of Nova Scotia supports cyclogenesis off the coast of Maryland. With sufficient cold air in place, there is synoptic support for an area of low pressure to form and move along the eastern coast of the United States. The spatial location of the center of the low pressure is still an area of uncertainty. This can be illustrated by the GEFS ensemble low pressure centers for Tues Feb 2nd at 00 UTC:
Uncertainty with this aspect combined with uncertainty over the spatial orientation of any mesoscale banding creates issues with snow accumulation forecasts. Regardless, large areas of New Jersey will see at least 3-6″ of snow with up to 12″ locally. The 12Z NAM shows the potential for the locally higher amounts:
As certainty increases, forecasted snowfall totals are expected to increase, unless the surface low becomes so close to the New Jersey coast that there is a transition to sleet or rain. This aspect of the forecast will become much clearer 24-48 hours before the storm. The potential for a very large snowstorm exists and one should be prepared for over 12″ of snow over a large area.
Coupe
It is mid January and raining steadily as temperatures rise into the upper 40s. At this point, it is apparent that medium range forecasts of cold were oversold. Yes, an upper level trough and mid-level low will move through the area over the next 48 hours, bringing unsettled weather. Behind this frontal system, 850 mb temperatures look unseasonably cold over the next 5 days. However, a surface high in the southeast will advect warm surface temperatures from the south and west after the cold front moves through on Saturday January 16th. There will be snow showers across the midwest, as far east as central Pennsylvania, but none of that will make it into New Jersey. Instead, temperatures rebound on Sunday into the 40s with southwest winds and clear skies. Notably, low temperatures will remain around 30F for the next 5 days.
An upper level ridge will begin to build in the southeast around Tuesday January 19th. This will battle lower 500 mb geopotential height anomalies to the north in central Canada, where cold air attempts to build up. However, the current GEFS is forecasting a build-up of cold temperatures in Canada that then retrogrades westward, bringing colder than average temperatures to the northwestern United States. Cold looks like it will develop in central or western Canada and shift southwest. Ridging will build south of Alaska and in response, persistent troughing develops off the west coast of the United States. A ridge over the southeast will contribute to a warm southeastern United States from days 3-10. All of these factors, but most importantly this southeast ridging will make it extremely difficult for an east coast snowstorm over the next 7-10 days. Unfortunately, it appears that Greenland blocking and a negative NAO will be wasted over this time period.
Even through forecast hour 384 of the operational GFS, there is virtually no snow for the east coast. The effects of the SSW are currently expected to avoid the east coast of the United States through the end of January. However, a period of west-based blocking in the Atlantic shows promise in the first week of February.
Coupe
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