6/13/15 Pregame

Data shows less humid air moving into Central Jersey for Saturday. Highs still in the upper-80s, could see a 90F reading in New Brunswick, which is famous for breaking high forecasts

.shortwave

Overnight we’ll have a vorticity maximum to our northeast, helping to develop the line of thunderstorms currently in eastern Pennsylvania. Whether or not they’re torn apart by the time they reach Central Jersey is hard to say. Current HRRR simulated max radar does not indicate heavy precipitation for most of Central Jersey. Greatest likelihood over Raritan.

40% thunderstorms Union County/Northern Middlesex County/Northern Somerset County

60% thunderstorms Central+South Middlesex County/South Somerset/Mercer Counties

30% thunderstorms northern Monmouth County

0% Central and South Monmouth County

NOTE: If line holds up as it approaches New Jersey, Somerset and Mercer could see more prolonged rain than areas east.

Overnight winds shift north as the cold front dips into the region around 4 am. Partly cloudy with clouds building to their peak around 8am to 9am, so heating tomorrow will be delayed.

The area may struggle to get rid of overcast skies. The southern half of New Jersey will have more cloudy skies than the northern half, so an inverted temperature gradient may develop depending on how thick the clouds are and where they line up.

Tomorrow’s forecasted high for New Brunswick: 89

Low for tonight: 75 – I’m saying that clouds are going to move in to prevent temperatures from getting too low, though the cold front is kept in mind. If it rains, expect the low to reach the dewpoint – 72. Percentages:

80% for 75

19% for 72

1% for 74

Low for tomorrow night: 67 because the clouds should disappear for tomorrow night with the lower dewpoints and overall less moist air.

6/12/15 Pre-game

As of 4:39 PM EDT, New Brunswick @ Rutgers Gardens cracked the 90F mark, rather late with some clouds rolling in right around the peak solar radiation. Here’s the dip in solar irradiance starting around 1 PM EDT

along with the visible development of fairweather cumulus clouds on the satellite which dotted our area.vis_nj_anim

In terms of convection and any chance for thunderstorm activity, warm air aloft is keeping the atmosphere capped. The line of thunderstorms that developed across ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania are on the edge of a very weak trough. That will come through the NYC metro area around 2 am, we’ll see if they hold together throughout the night. 60% chance of some rumbles of thunder through 3 am for Central New Jersey.

61215spc

There’s also a few cells of thunderstorms in southeast Pennsylvania, prompting the NWS to issue a Severe Thunderstorm Warning. This particular cell is raining itself out right now, but with temperatures still above 90 the probability of more development and convection is rather high. This could prompt rainshowers before 2 am, maybe 11 pm.

anim_njrc

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN DAUPHIN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
  CENTRAL SNYDER COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
  WEST CENTRAL SCHUYLKILL COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
  SOUTHERN NORTHUMBERLAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
  NORTHEASTERN JUNIATA COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 515 PM EDT

* AT 412 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
  CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
  AROUND 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PAXTONVILLE...AND MOVING
  EAST AT 20 MPH.