Verification for 1/26/20/ & Forecasts

1/26/20 Climatology: Average high: 39F, Average low: 22F
Sunday 1/26/20 Verification: High of 47F and Low of 31F. (+7.5F predicted vs 8.5F actual)
The high temperature today was 4F warmer than I forecasted and the low temperature was 2F cooler than I forecasted. I appear to be underestimating diurnal temperature variations in dry environments, but then again, so are all of the models. However, I ultimately underpredicted how warm the day would turn out. Abundant sunshine and SW winds were mostly responsible for the warmer conditions.

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A look at the next four days of temperatures at Rutgers Gardens:
Monday 1/27/20: High of 43F and Low of 32F. (+7F)
Tuesday 1/26/20: High of 42F and Low of 29F. (+4.5F)
Wednesday 1/26/20: High of 40F and Low of 29F. (+4F)
Thursday 1/27/20: High of 38F and Low of 28F. (+2FF)
Clear skies tonight will allow the temperature to drop to near freezing (31-33F) while clouds move in for the afternoon, limiting temperatures from rising as high as they have the past few days. Expect clouds in the lower levels (900 to 850 hPa) as well as mid-levels (700 hPa). Winds will be primarily from the West and high temperatures should reach 42-44F with dewpoints in the mid-20s.

Temperatures will cool off slightly following a disturbance to the stratospheric polar vortex on Friday 1/31/20 due to the building of a ridge into Alaska. This will displace cold air which has been building up over Alaska and send it across Canada and into the United States.

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Colder than average temperatures will occupy the central and eastern part of the United States, much of Canada, and eastern Russia, while Europe, Africa, and eastern Russia enjoy warmer than normal temperatures. A surge of warmer temperatures heads north into Greenland as cold air dips south for the first time this year.

Crucially the GEFS has several members showing a coastal storm between 2/1/20 and 2/3/20, right before the surge of the coldest air. This will be our next chance of wintry precipitation (or any precipitation, really) as the next few days are mostly dry. With the subtropical jet across the southeast, the storm track is to our south over the next few days. There will be areas of low pressure moving across Tennessee and the Carolinas periodically over the next few days, developing into a stronger storm over the southeastern Atlantic. However, there is no blocking in place that would allow these storms to travel northward up the east coast until the stratospheric polar vortex becomes disturbed after 1/31/20.

Coupe

 

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