Coastal Storm Verification (1/25/20 )

As of 22 UTC much of the precipitation has fallen (1.25″ in total) but temperatures are still 52F with a dewpoint of 52F after reaching a high of 53F earlier.

1/25/20 Climatology: Average high: 39F, Average low: 22F
Saturday 1/25/20 Verification: High of 53F and Low of 38F. (+10.5F predicted vs 15F actual); 1″ of rain predicted vs 1.25″ actual.

All in all, a rather successful forecast for today. The storm was slightly warmer than forecast allowing for 0.25″ more precipitation, a low temperature 4F above the forecast and a high temperature 1F above the forecast. Not bad for a very dynamic situation with a coastal storm moving off the coast and  a potential squall line moving through. Overnight, you can expect temperatures to drop near freeing (32-33F) as winds become westerly. The dewpoint drops into the 30s, then slowly drop into the 20s where it will remain for the next 5 days. The next 7 days look very dry.

In addition to being drier, the next week is looking cooler than it has been, but still above the 1980-2010 long-term mean temperatures for this time of year by more than 3F. The fact that this will feel cold is slightly concerning as we are becoming acclimated to a warmer climate over time. The southeast will experience slightly below average temperatures beyond Day4 according to the GEFS ensembles. The GEFS is also forecasting a sudden shift from very warm temperatures to below normal temperatures over the course of a few days in the Day <9 time period.

A minor warming in the polar stratosphere (10 hPa) is forecasted by the GEFS around January 30th along with a deceleration of the stratospheric polar vortex in the days to follow that warming:


The surface temperature impacts of this are not clear cut and are still in flux.
A look at the next four days of temperatures at Rutgers Gardens:
Sunday 1/26/20: High of 43F and Low of 33F. (+7.5F)
Monday 1/27/20: High of 43F and Low of 34F. (+8.5F)
Tuesday 1/26/20: High of 42F and Low of 30F. (+5F)
Wednesday 1/26/20: High of 41F and Low of 29F. (4F)


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